Lamorinda has long been one of the most desirable residential areas in Contra Costa County, attracting homebuyers with its top-rated schools, safe neighborhoods, and proximity to both the urban amenities of the Bay Area and the natural beauty of rolling hills. But as new 2024 population data from the U.S. Census reveals, migration trends are shifting, and understanding these patterns is key for buyers and sellers alike.
Key Takeaways: Lamorinda’s Population & Housing Trends
Contra Costa County hit a new population high of 1,172,607 in 2024.
Negative domestic migration continues, but foreign immigration is offsetting losses.
Lamorinda’s real estate remains strong as suburban demand holds steady.
Luxury & move-in-ready homes are in high demand due to limited inventory.
Market resilience expected despite economic uncertainty in 2025.
Population Growth in Contra Costa: What the Data Shows
According to newly released U.S. Census figures (July 1, 2023 - July 1, 2024), Contra Costa County’s population reached 1,172,607, marking an increase from previous years. However, the county, like much of the Bay Area, has been shaped by three key migration trends:
Negative Domestic Migration: More residents are leaving the Bay Area for other parts of the U.S. than moving in, primarily due to housing affordability, tax policies, and remote work opportunities. From 2020 to 2024, the Bay Area saw a net loss of 544,191 domestic migrants.
Positive Foreign Migration: Immigration played a crucial role in stabilizing population numbers, offsetting domestic migration losses. From 2020 to 2024, 324,911 foreign migrants moved into the Bay Area, helping balance out departures.
Natural Growth (Births vs. Deaths): More births than deaths contributed to the county’s overall population increase. Over the past year, Contra Costa benefited from a net gain of 20,862 residents due to natural growth.
How Contra Costa County Compares to the Bay Area
While Contra Costa County reached a new population high, other parts of the Bay Area continue to struggle with long-term declines. San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Cruz counties have seen the steepest losses since the pandemic, while Contra Costa and Solano counties have remained more stable.
The overall Bay Area population has rebounded slightly in the past year, growing by 72,883 residents, but it is still below pre-pandemic levels.
What These Population Shifts Mean for Lamorinda Real Estate
Lamorinda’s real estate market has always benefited from in-migration, with families, retirees, and professionals seeking its unique lifestyle. Here’s how these trends are likely to impact the local market:
1. Suburbs Remain a Strong Choice
With urban areas like San Francisco experiencing larger declines in population (primarily due to tenant departures), suburban areas like Lamorinda remain stable. Homebuyers are still prioritizing space, quality schools, and community amenities—all of which Lamorinda offers in abundance.
2. A Shift in Buyer Profiles
With domestic migration out of California still ongoing, the makeup of Lamorinda’s new residents may be shifting. Expect to see more international buyers and families relocating from within Contra Costa County rather than from other Bay Area counties. Lamorinda’s excellent school districts remain a key driver for family migration.
3. Luxury & Move-In-Ready Homes in Demand
High-net-worth buyers who traditionally relied on stock market gains for home purchases may be reevaluating due to recent market volatility. However, Lamorinda’s limited inventory and premium home offerings mean well-priced properties, particularly those that are move-in-ready, are likely to remain in high demand.
The Road Ahead: What’s Next for Lamorinda?
While concerns about the economy, interest rates, and stock market fluctuations remain, Lamorinda’s real estate market is well-positioned to remain resilient. The area’s long-standing desirability, combined with limited housing inventory, suggests that home values will remain strong even as broader Bay Area migration trends shift.
If net foreign migration slows in 2025 as expected due to federal policy changes, it may have an impact on Bay Area housing demand, particularly in areas that have relied on international buyers. However, Lamorinda’s fundamentals—strong schools, desirable lifestyle, and limited housing supply—should continue to make it a top choice for homebuyers.
Thinking About Buying or Selling in Lamorinda?
Understanding these trends can be the key to making a smart real estate decision. Whether you're a buyer looking for the perfect home or a seller wondering about market conditions, now is the time to stay informed.
📩 Want expert guidance on Lamorinda real estate? Contact me today to discuss your options!
Comments